Week 5 Predictions: Oregon vs WSU

A couple new faces in the Friday Prediction post today. 

First, our new full-time contributor and all around dude Andre Yruretagoyena (@Haramdre)! 

Secondly, the best-friend and hommie of WildKingdumb they have debated together and watched sports together their ENTIRE lives, he has also lived in The Palouse for over 10 years and loves his Cougars, Jeremiah Nealon (@J_Nealon).  

Thirdly, you’ve seen it since October 18th 2003… Ol’ Crimson (@OlCrimson) has been waving in the back of the ESPN College Gameday set to try and lure the show to Pullman, after 183 straight weeks they haven’t landed Gameday but they did get a seat at MoQ.

Let’s get to it…


Oregon (2-2) vs WSU (1-2)
Saturday, October 1st // Pullman, WA // 6:30pm PST // PAC-12 Network

Why Oregon could BEAT WSU…

@Haramdre
Our weapons on offense make us unstoppable.


@J_Nealon
Oregon already has 4 RB’s over the century mark for the season (plus Prukop scrambling). To this point, WSU has been able to avoid elite running backs and there is just no data for how the Cougs can handle a real rushing attack. Cougar Safteys have been beat over the top enough this season without really being forced to deal with a legitimate play-action threat. 

The Cougars have struggled on special teams the entire Leach era. The Eastern and Boise games were both agonizingly close and both included missed FG’s from makable distances. Last year’s breakout season for WSU was predicated by a much-improved defense (go back and watch the WSU-Stanford game in Martin. No one in the conference played McCaffrey better). That defense has not shown up yet this year. It may not. WSU lost an on field coach when Jeremiah Allison graduated and has been out of position and undisciplined all year. Last year’s Stanford game demonstrated that WSU’s defense is better suited against ground and pound, then a spread and speed attack like Oregon’s.

As the Coug fan I need to acknowledge the coaching situation. Leach is the worst clock manager in college football (I was going to just say football, but Andy Reid). Expect to see WSU leave points on the field at the end of both halves. 
Finally, a pissed off Oregon might tackle. The key to beating WSU is tackling in the secondary. The Cougar offense is predicated on making guys miss. 


@OlCrimson

Its Homecoming. I’ve never been to homecoming but this was a big game on the schedule and I thought I might make it back for the first time ever. That and the fact my guys are 4-10 against the Ducks since I was born.


@WIldKingdumb
WSU is a notoriously better on the road than at home.  If WSU continues to gain 4.6 yards/carry we can do well, they are only averaging 103 rush yds/game, unfortunately the Ducks have been giving up 192 yrds/game.  Have no doubt WSU will put up A LOT of passing yards, but as long as those are between the 20’s all will not be lost.  Oregon has only allowed 257 yrd/game passing, while WSU has been giving up 325 yrs/game themselves.  And remember with the above stats WSU has played E. Washington (L), Boise State (L) and Idaho (W).   


@AlexHorwitch
WHEW! OK. Let’s evaluate where we’re at. 2-2 record. Two ugly weeks in a row. The fan base is calling for the heads of the coaching staff. All in all, I would say that this is a rather low point of recent Duck history. I believe we’re at the “only one direction from here and thats up” moment in the season. Oregon is going to beat WSU this weekend. It is happening, no if’s, and’s, or but’s about it. The Ducks are winning this game. This is not only a statement game for this season (saying “we’re not dead yet”) but this is also a revenge game from last year. Royce will be back (maybe limited a bit still, but mostly back). The receivers are hungry. The defense is angry. Prukop knows this is do or die time, not only for his Oregon career, but he knows he needs to turn this ship FULLY around if he even wants to smell an NFL tryout, let alone a practice field. The Oregon Ducks American Tackle Football Team will beat the Washington State Cougars.


@colewagoner
WSU seems to be in somewhat of a mess right now, and not just on the field. If there’s a team besides Oregon in the north division who hasn’t met expectations so far, it’s Wazzu. Pair that with the expected return of Freeman & Pharaoh Brown, the Ducks could jump back on track with a win in the Palouse.


@Reedstrong7
Washington State struggles at home against Big Sky teams and Oregon looks like a Big Sky team right now.  Mark Helfrich is coaching for his life and doesn’t want to be fired on the Martin P. Vandal International Airport tarmac in Pullman.  Washington State’s defense is bad.


@UODUCKGIRL
 I don’t want to be Jinxy but I have a good feeling about this weekend. I think the players are pissed and hopefully fired up and I think they are going to take it out on the Cougars.  I think to beat anyone we have to play like it’s a playoff game and each game means everything. We gotta Win The Day, one day at a time.

@GoDucksTroll
I’m not sure I should be allowed to make predictions after prognosticating a three touchdown win over Colorado last week. But I’ll try; we beat the Cougs because the defense shows up for the first time this year.  The guys are hungry to get this turned around.


@SwooshMcDuck
The defense could show up? Dakota can throw on time & on target with more consistency? Tackling happens? I don’t know, but those things are gonna be needed to win. I have my doubts, but hope springs eternal.


@BigShaun
Why Oregon wins: Royce is back. Offense clicks along swimmingly. Lubik quits running zone reads on 3rd and and long.

@JonathanAdams
Run the ball, don’t be dumb. Run the ball, don’t be dumb. Run the ball, don’t be dumb. Run the ball, don’t be dumb. Etc.

Oh, and keep Wazzu under, say, 500 passing yards.

@jaromney
How could Oregon beat Wazzu? They can’t. Listen, you just can’t expect Oregon to go on the road and beat a program a year+ removed from having the Heisman winner and reaching the national title game. If you don’t believe me, ask Bruce Feldman. Swing your sword, bruh.



@jdamis
Pull our heads out of our asses. We’re the more talented team, so this isn’t a game we have any business losing. Run the ball. Don’t get cute, but don’t coach scared like last week either.


@DMDoubleG
The Return of Royce and an increasingly confident stable of running backs proves too much for Wazzu to handle. Wazzu’s lack of a run game plays into our lack of run defense, allowing us to focus on stopping the infamous Air Raid. Our defense steps up and makes stops when they need to. Ironic, given the potency of the two offenses, but this week comes down to which defense steps up.



@MambaSquatch

Last year’s loss to WSU didn’t prevent Freeman from having a monster game.  Reports tell us that he is back to 100%.  This year, having a capable quarterback for four quarters is just enough to push Oregon past the Cougs.  Prukop has his big moment in the clutch and the Ducks defense makes one more big play than WSU.  




Why Oregon could LOSE to WSU…

@Haramdre
Speed kills but not like the bore that is WSU’s offense lulling our defense to sleep… 115 pass attempts later.


@J_Nealon
A hot WSU can take any team to the fourth quarter (chat me up at the game if you want remind me what kind of teams a sloppy WSU can lose to). The best analogy for the Mike Leach Cougars is latter-era “Seven Seconds or Less” Phoenix Suns; they can shoot themselves into and out of any game.  The passing game is a tick behind last year (O’ Dom Williams, where art thou?), but it is still capable of catching fire. WSU has 5 receivers with over 10 catches this season and Falk regularly completes passes to 8-10 guys per game. Stopping Gabe Marks is not enough. And yes, @WildKingdumb, how the refs call the pick play will have a huge impact on the passing game.  ((EDITORS NOTE: WSU runs so many Mother effin pick plays))  With passing a given, I think the key is the running game. I don’t anticipate stopping Oregon’s offense in any significant way (though a takeaway would be nice). But there are signs that WSU might be on the verge of the kind of “just enough” running game that can generate 5-8 big plays a game that pushes scoring into the mid-high 40’s. WSU has 5 rushing TD’s in three games. That makes the Cougar red zone and third down offense (and let’s face it, fourth down offense) much stronger. If James Williams gets three big runs off, Oregon is in trouble. I suspect he does. 


@OlCrimson

Its homecoming. This was the biggest game on the books in years, and clearly what we were all focused on to start the season: Getting @collegegameday to come to Pullman. The last time we had that chance, UO lost the week before. . . time to let the flags fly.



@WIldKingdumb
WSU QB Luke Falk is averaging 7.06 yards/attempt in 158 attempts (It should be noted Prukop is averaging 8.9 yds/att in 117 attempts) and if that average ballons up it stands to assume that the Duck defense is on the field WAY too much.  But don’t get things confused, if WSU can run they ball they will win.  And win big.


@AlexHorwitch
Did you read a word of what I just said? The Ducks are not losing this game. It isn’t happening. Because if it does happen, someone is getting the Lane Kiffin treatment at the Eugene Airport (and I’m not entirely sure it would be Helfrich). But it’s not happening. Listen to the words that are coming out of my mouth; Oregon. Is winning. This football game. Also, they’re gonna Coug it.


@colewagoner
It’s no secret WSU can score. It’s also no secret that the Oregon defense has a hard time stopping anyone. Luke Falk is as good as anyone in the conference, and that could spell trouble considering a backup making his first start came into Autzen last weekend and did whatever he wanted.


@Reedstrong7
Washington State has the better quarterback and they are at home.  Oregon’s defense with Hoke looks every bit as terrible as it did under Pellum.


@UODUCKGIRL
Exhibit A: Nebraska Exhibit B: Colorado  


@GoDucksTroll
Our defense keeps doing it’s thing and Wazzu sets some type of conference record against us. Will it be a passing yard record? Completions? TD passes? With this defense it might even be a rushing record for a Mike Leach offense. We lose if our defense plays like it did for most of the Colorado game.


@SwooshMcDuck
The defense doesn’t show up, again. Dakota can’t hit targets in stride? We can’t tackle? Wazzu throws for 800yds and 7 TD’s. If you laugh at that, you’re not living in a sad reality.


@BigShaun
Why WSU wins: Air Raid Offense against an Oregon secondary that LOVES to see the yellow laundry fly. And, beside Springs, we keep playing from out of position. Also, Lubik keeps running some reads on 3rd and long.

@JonathanAdams
The don’t be dumb thing applies here, too, since last I checked “Couging it” is still a thing. Luckily Wazzu is coached by a mouth-breathing Trump supporter, so if Oregon gets out-coached in this one…my god.


But I digress. WSU beats Oregon by just being themselves offensively. Oregon’s defense is mostly bad and unless Brady Hoke flipped some magic switch this week, the Cougs will likely find little resistance when they have the ball. Turnovers have been extremely costly in both of WSU’s losses this season, so they need to hang on to the ball. Defensively, they don’t have to be spectacular — just make one more stop than Oregon. Finally, the Cougars are coming off a bye week, and even though their coach is a mouth-breathing Trump supporter, that’s still a nice advantage.

@jaromney
How could Oregon lose to Wazzu? By just being Oregon. Mark Helfrich is game planning two Coors Light’s deep at Rico’s Public House as we speak. I just don’t see how the moribund Oregon program goes on the road and competes with the 1998 Rose Bowl participants. Participate in a Rose Bowl and then pop off, Oregon! 



@jdamis
I don’t have much faith in the defense at all, so the offense cannot afford to come out flat again, because it’s gonna be a lot harder to dig yourself out of a hole on the road.

@DMDoubleG
While I’m finding it hard to pinpoint a quantifiable reason why we wouldn’t, my gut says we won’t. Wazzu has given us fits for the last few years, and the team will get a true test of character this week coming off two painful losses. Despite the return of Royce, the receivers are what down us, dropping crucial passes on big downs. The normally ball-secure Dakota Prukop throws 1 interception and loses one fumble during a scramble.



@MambaSquatch

If the Ducks aren’t able to tackle in space, it could mean a long day and their third straight loss.  Leach’ offense, which completes nearly 74% of its passes will click and they will be completing short passes all night.  Again, simple fundamentals of making open field tackles is a must if the Ducks expect to bring their PAC 12 record back to .500.



Prediction…

@Haramdre
Ducks in a shootout 52-49

@J_Nealon
49-47, WSU. Vegas says that home field is worth three points and I think these teams are even. 

@OlCrimson


@WIldKingdumb
My heart says Oregon will win, and that’s all I’m listening to.  36-35.

@AlexHorwitch
Oregon 42 – WSU 35

@colewagoner
Washington State wins 44-38

@Reedstrong7
First team to 50 wins.  I traditionally root against the home team in this series so that I can revel in the pain and displeasure of the fans in the stadium, so Oregon wins a 55-48 shootout.

@UODUCKGIRL
Ducks Go, Fight, Win Ducks Win!

@GoDucksTroll
Oregon wins, 37-30

@SwooshMcDuck
Prediction: Oregon 40, Wazzu 55
Call me Negaduck if you will, but I’d rather be wrong about losing than right about winning. Wazzu can pass, we all know this. Leach is gonna have his boys flying all over the field & we’re gonna watch a passing clinic in Pullman. For those traveling to Pullman, bring a spare 5th of Fireball to drown the tears. This is gonna be a long season.

@BigShaun
Score: 49-52… I’ll be honest, it’s a coin flip. And I’m afraid. But for the sake of being homerish, Oregon wins.

@JonathanAdams
I just don’t think Oregon is good enough right now to go on the road and beat a team that is very good on offense. Ducks lose another high-scoring close one, 47-42.

@jaromney
Washington State 69-Oregon 42. 

@jdamis
41 – 38, Ducks


@DMDoubleG
If Oregon wins: 42-35, *If WSU wins: 58-40*

@MambaSquatch

A revenge minded Ducks team will leave Pullman with a 48-45 victory.  A victory just in time to gain a little momentum heading into rivalry week vs the Huskies.  Go Ducks!!

Predicting an Oregon Win: 9
Predicting a WSU Win: 6

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