Why Oregon Will Win:
This is a mismatch in Oregon’s favor, and on the surface it looks like it could be a slaughter. Arizona State’s defense has been torched on both the ground and through the air. They still blitz a ridiculous number of times, a feast or famine approach that at the moment looks like North Korea after a particularly bad harvest. They are 91st in rush defense, and 125th in pass defense. Oregon’s offense is top-20 in both. I expect the Oregon O-line to hold back the blitz and give Herbz time to find some receivers, while Royce repeatedly gashes them for 10+ yards. The Sun Devil defense appears to have closely studied Brady Hoke’s defense, and is reaping rewards like giving up 54 plays of over 10 yards… In three games.
We got it going on both sides of the ball for the first time since the Aliotti days really. Im super impressed with the defense – tackling, the pressure, it all seems there. Thomas Graham Jr is clearly a breakout star and have every confidence he will continue to make huge plays. Offense will shine as well as they have the past 3 games. Editorial Comment: A win is a win and I don’t care the score so I am not concerned/worried about the 2nd half performances from Neb/Wyo.
Oregon wins because ASU has the tenth ranked defense in the Pac-12 and Oregon has the number one offense putting up over 56 per game.
Todd Graham is Arizona State’s head football coach.
Arizona State’s defense is somewhere between 2016 Oregon and abysmal. This is not a good place to be if you’re facing an offensive team like Oregon. Currently Oregon has racking up 609.0 YPG with 23 TDs in 3 games. Oregon is averaging 7.28 yards per play also on 251 plays, which also means Oregon is averaging 83 plays per game. Inside the top 10 teams in the country in terms of total offense, the next highest team in terms of plays run is West Virginia with 239. All this is to say that Oregon’s offense is so good, and ASU’s defense, well it leaves a lot to be desired. They’re giving up 338 yards per game through the air and 167 yards per game on the ground, and 505 yards per game total. They only average 412 yards per game of total offense, so you see the delimma here for Sun Devils. Charles Nelson should be back and ready to go for this game, but even if he isn’t, Oregon should be alright. Oregon will need to probably not disappear in the second half though in this one.
Oregon doesn’t lose to Arizona State.
Willie “Bill Belichick” Taggart never loses as the Oregon coach. Ever.
Undefeated. Never lost.
The Sun Devils are just a mess, to be nice. Todd Graham once opined that the road to Pasadena ran through Tempe, now Tempe wants Todd Graham to hit the road. ASU is flirting with the “Pelluhoke Line” on defense. The Pelluhoke Line is when you average giving up a higher number of points than your walk on fullbacks jersey number. Bad defense, no real identity on offense, no chance for the Devils. Oregon is just a bad matchup for ASU’s defense. Coaches always say that they can’t give up “cheap plays” to UO on defensive lapses. Well, when you blitz on every play, as ASU does, you’re ripe for giving up cheap plays. Uh oh.
Why Oregon Could Lose:
First Conference Game. First away conference game. Maybe the pressure for the younger team gets overwhelming?
Pac 12 after dark tends to get a little nutty. Charles Nelson is out so we lose a starter. Zona lost the last two games so maybe they are extra fired up. I think a lot of these games has to do with who really wants it and guts it out more. Penalties. Those damn Penalties. Also known to those of us who watched Wyo on CB Sports Net as “green on green crime”.
The honeymoon has to end sometime. Nothing can usher in a weird loss like Pac-12 after dark. As we all know, things get weird after 10pm out west.
I guess there’s a chance Todd Graham gets fired between now and Saturday night.
Maybe the entire first team defense gets lost on their way to the stadium? Oregon is still giving up buckets of yards on defense, 303 per game to be exact, so that is a bit of a worry. They’ve been decent at defending the pass, but Manny Wilkins is going to be a whole new beast compared to what they’ve been facing, he’s averaging 308 yards per game and has passed for 7 touchdowns. Oregon’s defense has the tools to handle Arizona State’s best players but it remains to be seen if they will execute against better opponents, for all we know at this point they could fold like a house of cards. Arizona State’s best defense player Koron Crump is out for this game, but that also means Oregon doesn’t know what changes Todd Graham will make to remedy the loss in his linebacker corps.
An early injury to Yung Herbz. Aside from something that disastrous, it would take an unfocused Oregon team to lose on Saturday. A sneaky ASU strategy would be just to punt every play, eventually a Duck returner will put the ball on the grass. Profit.
Oregon wins, 59-31.
I know this:
Oregon has 42 at the half
Oregon 38 ASU 31
49-14. Oregon rolls.
Oregon wins 51-24.